Bayes’ Theorem for Appendicitis

• Prior Probability, Patient with Abdominal Pain .20

• Right Lower Quadrant Pain

  • Sensitivity .84, Specificity .90
  • Posterior Probability given RLQ pain .677

• Fever

  • Sensitivity .67, Specificity .79
  • Posterior Probability given Fever .444

• RLQ Pain in Patient with Fever

  • Probability Prior to RLQ: .444
  • Posterior Probability given RLQ pain and Fever .870

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