Table 4. Variable definitions for the probabilities of related events.
|
Variable name |
Variable definitions in terms of common underlying variable |
|
Probability the dysplasia will definitely require an invasive procedure |
|
|
pdisreqinvas |
0.2 |
|
pCIN1reqinvproc |
.35*pdisreqinvas |
|
pdreqinvg1crgper |
1-.81*(1-pdisreqinvas) |
|
pdreqinvg1crgpro |
1-.525*(1-pdisreqinvas) |
|
pdreqinvgimcryfail |
1-.875*(1-pdisreqinvas) |
|
pCIN3reqinvproc |
1 |
|
Probability doctor will choose cryotherapy as opposed to a more invasive procedure |
|
|
pcryovsinvas |
0.75 |
|
p2cryg1crfaigper |
.20*pcryovsinvas |
|
pcryogCIN2 |
.80*pcryovsinvas |
|
p2cryg1crfaigpro |
.1333*pcryovsinvas |
|
p2crygimcryfail |
.333*pcryovsinvas |
|
Probability cryotherapy will cure the dysplasia |
|
|
pcurgcryo |
0.95 |
|
pcurg1cryopers |
.98*pcurgcryo |
|
pcurg1cryoprog |
.95*pcurgcryo |
|
pcurgimcryo |
pcurgcryo |
|
pcurg2cryo |
.85*pcurgcryo |
|
Probability colposcopic exam can adequately view the cervic, post cryotherapy |
|
|
pviewgimcryfail |
0.70 |
|
pviewg1cryfail |
pviewgimcryfail |
|
Probability the cryotherapy will regress, persist, or progress to CIN 2 or CIN 3 |
|
|
preggfol |
0.57 |
|
proporpersist |
0.74 |
|
ppergfol |
proporpersist*(1-preggfol) |
|
propCIN2 |
0.50 |
|
pCIN2 |
propCIN2*(1-preggfol-ppergfol) |
|
pCIN3 |
1 - preggfol - ppergfol - pCIN2 |
|
Evaluation of dysutility of invasive procedures relative to cryotherapy |
|
|
invcryofactor* |
1 |
|
vCryo (dysutility of cryotherapy) |
3 |
|
LEEP |
invcryofactor * vCryo |
|
Laser Ablation |
(4/3) * invcryofactor * vCryo |
|
Laser Cone |
(5/3) * invcryofactor * vCryo |
|
Cold Knife Cone |
(5/3) * invcryofactor * vCryo |
|
Hysterectomy |
(8/3) * invcryofactor * vCryo |
*Factor varying relative dysutility of invasive procedures compared with cryotherapy.
Return to
text at http://www.fammed.ouhsc.edu/robhamm/mcd4/jfp97txt.htm.