Table 4. Variable definitions for the probabilities of related events.

Variable name

Variable definitions in terms of common underlying variable

Probability the dysplasia will definitely require an invasive procedure

pdisreqinvas

0.2

pCIN1reqinvproc

.35*pdisreqinvas

pdreqinvg1crgper

1-.81*(1-pdisreqinvas)

pdreqinvg1crgpro

1-.525*(1-pdisreqinvas)

pdreqinvgimcryfail

1-.875*(1-pdisreqinvas)

pCIN3reqinvproc

1

Probability doctor will choose cryotherapy as opposed to a more invasive procedure

pcryovsinvas

0.75

p2cryg1crfaigper

.20*pcryovsinvas

pcryogCIN2

.80*pcryovsinvas

p2cryg1crfaigpro

.1333*pcryovsinvas

p2crygimcryfail

.333*pcryovsinvas

Probability cryotherapy will cure the dysplasia

pcurgcryo

0.95

pcurg1cryopers

.98*pcurgcryo

pcurg1cryoprog

.95*pcurgcryo

pcurgimcryo

pcurgcryo

pcurg2cryo

.85*pcurgcryo

Probability colposcopic exam can adequately view the cervic, post cryotherapy

pviewgimcryfail

0.70

pviewg1cryfail

pviewgimcryfail

Probability the cryotherapy will regress, persist, or progress to CIN 2 or CIN 3

preggfol

0.57

proporpersist

0.74

ppergfol

proporpersist*(1-preggfol)

propCIN2

0.50

pCIN2

propCIN2*(1-preggfol-ppergfol)

pCIN3

1 - preggfol - ppergfol - pCIN2

Evaluation of dysutility of invasive procedures relative to cryotherapy

invcryofactor*

1

vCryo (dysutility of cryotherapy)

3

LEEP

invcryofactor * vCryo

Laser Ablation

(4/3) * invcryofactor * vCryo

Laser Cone

(5/3) * invcryofactor * vCryo

Cold Knife Cone

(5/3) * invcryofactor * vCryo

Hysterectomy

(8/3) * invcryofactor * vCryo

*Factor varying relative dysutility of invasive procedures compared with cryotherapy.

 

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